Economic Update, June 26, 2017

Phillip Allen Inc.

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE
              
“He that will not sail until all dangers are over, will never put to sea.”

– Thomas Fuller

WEEKLY TIP
             
If you are divorcing, make the effort to collect, sort, and catalogue as many financial documents as you can find. As you move further into divorce proceedings, these records may become crucially important.

WEEKLY RIDDLE
            
Tom tells Phillip that a faded, worn ten-dollar bill is worth more than a newer one. In what way is he correct?
   
 
Last week’s riddle:
What are you able to keep after you give it to someone?
  
Last week’s answer:
Your word.

 

 

 

 

 

June 26, 2016

   

MORE HOMES MOVED IN MAY
In a pleasant surprise for economists, both new and existing home sales picked up last month. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.1% gain for resales, with the average house for sale spending only 27 days on the market. New home buying increased 2.9% in May, resulting in an annualized gain of 8.9%. The average sale price for a new home was $406,400, a record.1
   
LEADING INDICATORS IMPROVE
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% for May, following gains of 0.2% for April and 0.4% for March. Most of the index’s components were positive for May and a steepening interest rate spread, a climb for the Institute for Supply Management’s new orders index, and greater consumer optimism about business and economic conditions were major factors. The LEI was up 3.5% year-over-year through May.2
 
CRUDE IS ON ITS LONGEST LOSING STREAK IN 2 YEARS
WTI crude settled at $43.01 at Friday’s closing bell, down 4.4% from the end of last week. This decline marked the fifth straight weekly retreat for oil; an 8-week losing streak ended in August 2015. Oil is now in a bear market.3
 
STOCKS ADVANCE
All three of the major U.S. equity indices had made 5-day gains by the time trading wrapped up on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added just 0.05%, advancing to 21,394.76, and the S&P 500 had improved 0.21% to 2,438.30. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.84% to 6,265.25. Even after this last sideways week, the Dow 30 ended Friday’s session up 1.49% month-over-month.4
 
THIS WEEK: On Monday, the Census Bureau shares data on May hard goods orders. Tuesday sees the release of the latest consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, plus earnings reports from Darden Restaurants and KB Home. Wednesday, the NAR puts out its May pending home sales report, and Franklin Covey, General Mills, Monsanto, Paychex, and Pier 1 announce earnings. The third estimate of Q1 GDP appears Thursday along with a new initial unemployment claims report and earnings announcements from ConAgra Brands, Constellation Brands, Micron Technology, Nike, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. The final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, May consumer spending figures, and the May PCE price index arrive on Friday.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA 8.26 18.79 13.85 6.01
NASDAQ 16.39 27.6 23.32 14.2
S&P 500 8.91 15.38 16.53 6.22
REAL YIELD 6/23 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.45% 0.24% -0.42% 2.70%

 

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/8/166,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

 

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 This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/23/new-home-sales-rise-in-may-as-prices-hit-record-level-update.html [6/23/17]
2 – haver.com/comment/comment.html?c=170622d.html [6/22/17]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-edge-up-as-big-producers-stick-to-cuts-2017-06-23-6103497/ [6/23/17]
4 – markets.wsj.com/us [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F23%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F23%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F23%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F22%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F22%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F22%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F22%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/23/17]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/23/17]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/23/17]

 

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