Weekly Economic Update for November 26, 2012

November 26, 2012  |   News

November 26, 2012

Existing home sales rose 2.1% in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR noted a 10.9% annual gain in the sales pace and an 11.1% year-over-year rise in the median sale price to $178,600. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index came in at 46 for November, a six-and-a-half year peak. Housing starts increased 3.6% in October to a five-year high.1,2

The University of Michigan’s bellwether consumer sentiment survey came in at a final mark of 82.7 for November, up 0.1 point from the final October reading. The index’s preliminary November reading had been 84.9.3

The National Retail Federation projects 5 million fewer Black Friday weekend shoppers this year, but also a 4.1% annual gain in holiday retail sales. A Reuters survey showed that 21% of shoppers think they will spend less this holiday season, while 11% think they will spend more.4

With a helping hand from QE3, the average interest rate on the 30-year FRM fell to 3.34%, a new record low, in Freddie Mac’s November 20 Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago, interest rates on these loans were hovering near 4%.2

Congress took its Thanksgiving recess last week, and no discouraging news on the fiscal cliff talks amounted to relatively good news for Wall Street. The Dow (+3.35% to 13,009.68), S&P 500 (+3.62% to 1,409.15) and NASDAQ (+3.99% to 2,966.85) all advanced across three-and-a-half trading days. Gold settled Friday at $1,751.80 an ounce, oil at $88.36 a barrel.5,6,7

THIS WEEK: No major U.S. economic reports are scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, September’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out plus the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence poll, data on October hard goods orders and earnings from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Wednesday, TiVo, Aeropostale, Neiman Marcus, Ann and Fifth Street Finance issue earnings reports and a new Fed Beige Book appears plus data on October new home sales. Thursday, NAR’s report on October pending home sales, the second estimate of Q3 GDP and the latest initial claims complement earnings from Kroger, Tiffany, Barnes & Noble, Mitel and Cracker Barrel. Friday sees the release of the October personal spending report.

Sources: thestreet.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 11/23/125,8,9,10
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1 – www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-existing-home-sales-homebuilder-confidence-20121119,0,207630.story [11/19/12]
2 – abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/11/housing-starts-surged-3-6-pct-in-october/ [11/20/12]
3 – www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-economy-consumer-20121121,0,596839.story [11/21/12]
4 – www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/23/usa-retail-holiday-blackfriday-idUSL1E8MN0D220121123 [11/23/12]
5 – www.thestreet.com/story/11774464/1/stock-market-story-nov-23.html [11/23/12]
6 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/49938926 [11/23/12]
7 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=retirement-investment-funds&category=3 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F22%2F02&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F22%2F02&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F22%2F02&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/23/12]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/23/12]
10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm71002.pdf [7/10/02]

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